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TD: The inventory has increased, and the production scheduling indicate

the sale is lower than the market expectation

1) The inventory index of automobile industry has risen and is in the depression stage

CPCA considers that the EV sales in last august was relatively high, the market yoy growth rate in august would decrease. CPCA estimated that wholesale of passenger electric car in august was 800,000, year-on-year growth rate was 27% and mom growth rate was 9%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative passenger electric car wholesale reached 5.08 million, an increase of 39% compared to the same period of the last year.

 

On August 31, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the latest dealers inventory data, the data show that the dealers inventory index was 56.9% in August 2023, rose by 2.2 percentage year-on-year, down by 0.9 percentage quarter-on-quarter,the index value indicates the automobile industry is standing in the depression zone.

 

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2) Lithium battery production is expected to rise 44%, lower than the market expectations

TD's research data on Top 10 battery manufacturers show that the estimated output of EV& energy storage is 73.62GWh in September, and 70.7Gwh in August, rise by 4% month-on-month;The leading battery manufacturers maintains the output or has a little increment, and the others decline from the last month.

 

Also, TD's research show, the peak season effort does not appear, battery output generally worse than expected, most manufacturers orders does not change much from the previous month.It means the total orders for the battery industry does not increase, it may cause the intense competition between the battery enterprise.

 

3) Lithium carbonate prices would go stable in short terms

In August, Lithium carbonate prices continued to fall, spot prices stopped falling but did not stabilize, and the total amount of transactions decreased. The futures prices once fell by the daily limit. The market was generally bearish. Battery grade lithium carbonate offer price at the end of August was in the range of 198,000 to 213,000 yuan/ton, the lowest price has fallen below 200,000 yuan/ton.

 

TD expects lithium carbonate prices in September would stabilize in the short term, the main reasons are:

The demand is still weak. In the case of weak demand, the price of lithium carbonate lacks strong support.

In terms of supply side, the Jiangxi region's production has been cutted a little part, and the salt lake production has been adjusted back. As prices continue to fall,lithium Mining company would adjust their production and supply.


 

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