TD:2023-8,China EV battery production will decrease by 1.38% month-on-month

Sales of EV: the off-season effect is obvious in August

In June, the retail sales of EV reached 665,000, compared with 717,000 in May, -7.7% mom growth rate, and the EV penetration rate in vehicle retail market reached 35.1%.

However, in July, the retail sales of EV are expected to reach 600,000, -9.8% MoM growth rate. The penetration rate in the retail vehicle market reached 35.8%, which increased by 0.7%, and was caused by the fact that the ICE vehicle had substantially implemented short-term promotional activities in June for completing the sale goal of the first half of the year, and began to return to normal in July. However, the leading enterprises such as Xiaopeng and NIO have been beginning to introduce second half year promotion programs, so the penetration rate of EV in July exceeded June;

On the basis of the average installed battery capacity per EV in 2023 is 41.9KWh, the total installed battery capacity in July reached 25.14GWh; Compared with the figure in June (27.85GWh), decreased by 9.7%. According to the Dadong (TD) Top10 battery enterprises productionplanning and scheduling survey, the battery output would increase by 7.63%(MoM), so the inventory accumulation is obvious, and it would increase at least 4.8GWh;thus, the battery enterprises inventory amount in July would slightly increased causing the sales pressure increased in August;


2) The output growth in different EV battery is seriously differentiated

Dadong Times(TD) Top10 battery enterprise survey data show that in August EV + energy storage battery output reach 67.94 GWh, decreased by 1.38%; Some battery enterprises production is lower than the industry average level. And due to the increase in battery factory inventory in July and August is belong to off-season period, the price of battery raw materials in August is expected to fall;

3) In the short-term period, weak demand causes lithium carbonate prices decrease:

Supply side, Spodumene production capacity is expected to increase that the overseas supply side Australia and Africa production projects will release production capacity in the second half of the year. In August, due to the demand would decline compared to the previous month, battery -use lithium carbonate inventory in some battery enterprises would reach high level, and the procurement strategic of battery-use lithium carbonate for battery enterprises in August is wait and see . In the short term, there is no significant motivation on increasing lithium carbonate procurement , and the price of lithium carbonate in August is expected to maintain in the range of 220,000 to 240,000, but due to the upcoming peak season in the second half of the year, the expected bottom price of lithium carbonate is around 210,000 to 220,000


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